Let’s cut to the chase, shall we? For almost four years, all we have heard, seen, and read from Trump and his fans is how he has single-handedly created “the greatest economy in the history of the U.S.” We will begin by debunking this claim first.
It is generally accepted that the state of the nation’s economy can be ascertained from certain key economic indicators, for which graphs are readily available. Below is a graph of one of those indicators, the unemployment rate.
What the graph demonstrates is that the U.S. unemployment rate had been on a steady decline (at least until the COVID-19 pandemic) since 2010, or a year after Barack Obama first became President. Before that, we had suffered through a two-year recession which greeted Obama when he took office.
Another indicator is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. See graph below.
Once again we see the effect of the recession years on the economy, followed by steady, if modest GDP growth under Obama. GDP growth under Trump shows no significant improvement over the Obama years, and in fact will take the expected tumble in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Trump gloats about his economy, but the GDP growth during his administration pales in comparison to the Bill Clinton years.
Now… while I am not an economics major, I am fairly certain I can interpret graphs. Two major indicators fail to show the “sharp upward turn” of the economy that Trump and his followers would have you believe.
What the graphs do show is a continuation of economic trends already existent during the Obama administration. In other words, Trump is enjoying a ride on Obama’s coattails.
Many economists acknowledge the existence of inertia in a national economy. Simply put, policy implementation and changes generally do not cause an immediate turnaround of economic indicators, positive or negative. There tends to be a certain lag time involved. It’s sort of like expecting a large ship to make a 90-degree turn at sea.
The point being that Trump is very likely benefiting from economic policies put in place during the Obama administration, with effects still being felt in today’s economy. The same could hold true, for example, with any bonehead decisions made by Trump… where the negative effects would probably become the problem of the next President.
I chose the nation’s economy as the first Trump claim to debunk, because the economy remains one of Trump’s principal misleading claims. Regardless of how badly he has mangled the handling of the pandemic and other crises, he always points to the economy and brags (however false) about his role. It’s all nothing but smoke and mirrors.
The list of Trump claims that can be debunked is long, yet for the sake of brevity I will not go into other claims in this article, but rather will address them in future articles.
Not being an expert on economic issues, I find the data, graphs and comparisons in the article quite interesting. Just another faux pas related to the incumbent president..You would think that people would get the point by now…. and I agree, the list of issues that can be debunked is long.. you have until November, so keep them coming !
Hi Lillian. Yes… sadly, people who blindly revere Trump do anything but “get the point.” As it turns out, Trump’s blustering comment in January 2016 about being able to “shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and still not lose voters”, turned out to be pretty prophetic.
Numbers do not lie, well… except when they’re twisted and manipulated by politicians or someone with an agenda. But economic indicators don’t lie… and it seems Trump fans just do not want to accept the ugly truth about the object of their admiration.
Thank you Lillian, for your comments… and I will certainly crank up the debunking of false Trump-related claims and myths. You’re absolutely correct… there is a lot to pick from.
To me Data shows, that it does not matter who is President, the markets will follow their normal trend. In our wall street capitalist america, there is really not much Presidents can influence when it comes to Markets and Economy. They can control government spending (how much they choke america in debt) and try to avoid going to war. Also the idea that their policies will have an immediate effect is very unlikely, today’s policies will have an effect if any in at least a year… Like with all the crashes the 2008 crash it was the market themselves that self adjusted for profitability. Reality is that both Presidents enjoyed the quick reaction of the market to the drop. Which historically is 1 year when we go back and study previous drops. We are very close to the next drop, when you start seeing the crypto and the hight tech bubbles forming even in pandemic times… For Example (Tesla) giving returns of 500% + solely on promises of space exploration. It is a game of odds, if you happen to be president in a bull run lucky you. Trump as a wall street regular, saw the opportunity of the markets and jumped in the joy ride. If Biden or Trump wins the election, they will continue to ride the S&P bandwagon just like Obama and Trump did and cross fingers the next bubble burst does not come in the next 4 years. If Biden wins chances are very high that He will be there to see the bubble burst. He will take the blame but really it has nothing to do with the president, it is the market behavior of the previous years…
I thank you for your study. It’s pretty much an, in your face, truth. I wish all information given in the news would be this thorough.
I also hope your blog goes viral.
Cyclical economic behavior is something you and I can understand. Same thing with lag times on the effect of policy changes on the economy. Not so with political fanatics who do not understand financials, the stock market, or economic indicators.
Political fanatics believe in sharp, 90-degree economic shifts… and that everything that occurs in the economy is either blamed on or credited to, the one who happens to be sitting in the White House at the moment.
Trump was fortunate… and like the good salesman he is, he keeps making his pitch to millions of very willing ears.
Thanks for your comments, Danitwain.
Thank you, Alex. Your comments are well appreciated. It’s time to put some of these snake-oil salesman pitches to rest. If Joe Biden and his team are smart, they will counter Trump’s bluster on the economy with cold, hard facts. Unfortunately, these would probably be lost on Trump’s fans. Again I bring up the “shooting on 5th Avenue” line uttered by Trump back in 2016. It may have been a slap in the face to some people… but it ended up being prophetic.
Let’s hope the blog is shared by enough people that it might open some eyes.
Very interesting reading and very well raised. I totally agree. It is a real shame that the “wanna be Dictator” uses so many lies to support his “truth” that in the end it is as you indicate, based on false statements. Furthermore, may his loyal, unconditional followers defend the indefensible. This is a circus set up by a lying clown who knew how to take the opportunity to sell a dream to his party’s followers. He has clearly shown that he sells his soul to the Devil and that he takes anyone through the middle in order to achieve his objectives, which are to enrich without limits both himself and his relatives and his soul friends. I recommend you put the link to your article and your blog on Twitter and Facebook. I look forward to your next articles. Best regards!
Couldn’t have said better myself, Pedro. Thanks for your comments.
“Defending the indefensible” has taken on gargantuan proportions under Trump. In the face of blatant lies, screw-ups, abuses, and abhorrent behavior, his ardent followers stay the course undeterred. I have compared him to the Pied Piper of Hamelin, not to imply that everyone who likes Trump does so blindly… but to state that most do so. Facts are of no consequence when discussion Trump with those who follow him unconditionally, as you well put it.
In fact I do have a Facebook page, and you can search for it under “opinandoconrey.” Thanks again for your comments… and I’m glad some of us do not hold back.